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What will be the resolution of TikTok's U.S. operations by Jan 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, U.S. government, or acquiring company
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Pause TikTok Ban Law Until Jan. 20 Inauguration for Political Resolution
Dec 27, 2024, 10:13 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to pause a law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, that would ban the TikTok social media platform on Jan. 19, unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. Trump's request comes in an amicus brief filed with the court, where he argues for time to pursue a political resolution to the dispute after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10. The law was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. Trump's filing does not address the constitutionality of the law but emphasizes his ability to negotiate a solution.
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No change • 25%
Sale • 25%
Ban • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
International ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ownership Structure is Dissolved • 25%
Ownership Remains Unchanged • 25%
Ownership Changes to Project Liberty • 25%
Ownership Changes to Another Entity • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Divestment ongoing • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
U.S. Company • 25%
Joint Venture • 25%
Other • 25%
ByteDance • 25%
Operations continue with restrictions • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Operations continue without change • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other status • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Political negotiation • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
New partnership deal • 25%
TikTok remains with ByteDance • 25%