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What will be the political resolution for TikTok's U.S. operations by Feb 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Negotiated deal with Trump administration • 25%
No deal, ban enforced • 25%
Legislative amendment to existing law • 25%
Other political resolution • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. government or ByteDance
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Pause TikTok Ban Law Until Jan. 20 Inauguration for Political Resolution
Dec 27, 2024, 10:13 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to pause a law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, that would ban the TikTok social media platform on Jan. 19, unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. Trump's request comes in an amicus brief filed with the court, where he argues for time to pursue a political resolution to the dispute after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10. The law was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. Trump's filing does not address the constitutionality of the law but emphasizes his ability to negotiate a solution.
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Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ban • 25%
Sale • 25%
No change • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
International ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Resolution reached • 33%
Ongoing negotiations • 34%
No resolution • 33%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ownership Remains Unchanged • 25%
Ownership Changes to Project Liberty • 25%
Ownership Changes to Another Entity • 25%
Ownership Structure is Dissolved • 25%
Divestment • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
New partnership deal • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains with ByteDance • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
Full divestment • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Political negotiation • 25%
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
Other • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Divestment ongoing • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Other resolution • 25%