Market
Will U.S. or European agencies confirm Baltic Sea cable damage as accidental by March 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from U.S. or European intelligence agencies or government reports
Story
U.S. and European Intelligence Conclude Baltic Sea Cable Damage Due to Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage: Washington Post
Jan 19, 2025, 02:01 PM
U.S. and European intelligence agencies have concluded that recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was the result of accidents, not Russian sabotage, according to reports from The Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence that the commercial vessels suspected of dragging anchors across the seabed did so intentionally or under orders from Moscow. Instead, the damage is attributed to inexperienced crews operating poorly maintained ships. This conclusion is supported by multiple unnamed U.S. and European intelligence officials.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Undetermined cause • 25%
Accidental maritime incident • 25%
Russian sabotage • 25%
Other nation-state involvement • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Sabotage • 25%
Accidental digging • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Joint EU investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
