Market
Will new evidence of Russian involvement in Baltic Sea cable damage emerge by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from credible news organizations or official intelligence disclosures
Story
U.S. and European Intelligence Conclude Baltic Sea Cable Damage Due to Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage: Washington Post
Jan 19, 2025, 02:01 PM
U.S. and European intelligence agencies have concluded that recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was the result of accidents, not Russian sabotage, according to reports from The Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence that the commercial vessels suspected of dragging anchors across the seabed did so intentionally or under orders from Moscow. Instead, the damage is attributed to inexperienced crews operating poorly maintained ships. This conclusion is supported by multiple unnamed U.S. and European intelligence officials.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Accidental maritime incident • 25%
Undetermined cause • 25%
Russian sabotage • 25%
Other nation-state involvement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
France • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
Other • 25%