Market
What will be the origin of future similar incidents in the Baltic Sea by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Accidental • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from maritime authorities or intelligence agencies
Story
U.S. and European Intelligence Conclude Baltic Sea Cable Damage Due to Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage: Washington Post
Jan 19, 2025, 02:01 PM
U.S. and European intelligence agencies have concluded that recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was the result of accidents, not Russian sabotage, according to reports from The Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence that the commercial vessels suspected of dragging anchors across the seabed did so intentionally or under orders from Moscow. Instead, the damage is attributed to inexperienced crews operating poorly maintained ships. This conclusion is supported by multiple unnamed U.S. and European intelligence officials.
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Other • 25%
Russia and another NATO country • 25%
Russia and Germany • 25%
Russia and non-NATO country • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Deliberate provocation • 25%
Unintentional miscommunication • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Other state actors • 25%
Non-state actors • 25%
Russia • 25%
Maritime patrol aircraft encounter • 25%
Frigate encounter • 25%
No major incident • 25%
Naval drone encounter • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other • 25%
Military response • 25%
No action • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Collaboration on international security protocols • 25%
Increased maritime security measures • 25%
English Channel • 25%
Denmark Strait • 25%
Between Sweden and Denmark • 25%
Gulf of Finland • 25%