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What will be the outcome of the Baltic Sea cable damage investigation by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Accidental damage confirmed • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official reports from U.S. or European intelligence agencies
Story
U.S. and European Intelligence Conclude Baltic Sea Cable Damage Due to Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage: Washington Post
Jan 19, 2025, 02:01 PM
U.S. and European intelligence agencies have concluded that recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was the result of accidents, not Russian sabotage, according to reports from The Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence that the commercial vessels suspected of dragging anchors across the seabed did so intentionally or under orders from Moscow. Instead, the damage is attributed to inexperienced crews operating poorly maintained ships. This conclusion is supported by multiple unnamed U.S. and European intelligence officials.
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Similar markets
Accidental maritime incident • 25%
Russian sabotage • 25%
Other nation-state involvement • 25%
Undetermined cause • 25%
Yes • 50%
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France • 25%
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United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
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Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Yes • 50%
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