Market
Will intelligence agencies reassess Russian involvement in Baltic Sea cable damage by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements or reports from intelligence agencies
Story
Washington Post: Intel Officials Say Baltic Cable Damage Was Accidental, Not Russian Sabotage
Jan 19, 2025, 02:45 PM
U.S. and European intelligence officials have concluded that the recent damages to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were likely caused by maritime accidents rather than Russian sabotage, according to reports by the Washington Post. Investigations have found no evidence linking Russia to the incidents and suggest that the ships involved did not act intentionally or under Moscow's direction. The emerging consensus among security services indicates that unintentional actions by ships, possibly involving dragging anchors, led to the damage. The ship 'Eagle S' has been mentioned in connection with one of the cable ruptures. However, some officials and experts express skepticism over the accident explanation. Pekka Toveri, a Finnish official, described the idea that the damage was accidental as 'absolute nonsense'.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Accidental damage confirmed • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
International diplomatic actions • 25%
Improved cable protection measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%