Market
What will be the outcome of Ukraine-related negotiations by end of 2025?
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Nikolai Patrushev•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Ukraine•Komsomolskaya Pravda•Patrushev•Russia•United States•Western•London•Brussels•Moscow•Ukrainian•Kyiv
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from involved parties or international bodies
Story
Putin's Aide Predicts Ukraine's Demise by 2025, Advocates Bilateral Talks with US, Excludes London and Brussels
Jan 14, 2025, 01:29 PM
Nikolai Patrushev, a close aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has predicted that Ukraine may cease to exist as a sovereign state by 2025. In an interview with the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, Patrushev stated that it is possible Ukraine will 'cease to exist altogether' in the coming year. He also emphasized that negotiations regarding Ukraine's future should be conducted exclusively between Russia and the United States, without the involvement of other Western countries. Patrushev dismissed the need for discussions with London or Brussels, asserting that Moscow has nothing to discuss with them. He further claimed that the Ukrainian people are closely tied to Russia by centuries-old bonds, despite efforts by Kyiv to promote anti-Russian propaganda.
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%