Market
What will be the outcome of the next major diplomatic negotiation involving Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2025?
2
Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments or international bodies
Story
Russia and Ukraine Exchange 25 POWs Each, Including Azovstal Defenders, in UAE-Mediated Swap
Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted the first prisoner exchange of 2025, each side releasing 25 prisoners of war, according to statements from both countries' defense ministries. The exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, took place on the territory of Belarus. Among those returning to Ukraine are military personnel and civilians, including defenders from Mariupol and the Azovstal steelworks, as well as individuals from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Many of the Ukrainian returnees are reported to have serious injuries and illnesses, including amputations, gunshot wounds, tuberculosis, cancer, and gangrene. The Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical care before being transported to Russia for further treatment and rehabilitation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed commitment to bringing all Ukrainians home, stating that Ukraine will not stop until all its people are returned.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%