Market
What will be the outcome of Russia-US negotiations on Ukraine by the end of 2025?
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Nikolai Patrushev•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Ukraine•Russia•United States•Western•Patrushev•Moscow•London•Brussels•Komsomolskaya Pravda•Ukrainian•US•Donald Trump•Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official announcements or agreements documented by the US and Russian governments
Story
Putin's Aide Warns Ukraine Could Cease to Exist by 2025, Calls for Direct Russia-US Talks Excluding Other Western Countries
Jan 14, 2025, 12:47 PM
Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has stated that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted exclusively between Russia and the United States, without the participation of other Western countries. Patrushev emphasized that Moscow has nothing to discuss with London or Brussels regarding Ukraine. Additionally, he warned that Ukraine could 'cease to exist' as a country by 2025, a statement made during an interview with the Russian state-backed outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda. Patrushev described the Ukrainian people as 'close, brotherly, and bound to Russia by centuries-old ties.' He also mentioned that any future discussions on Ukraine should consider the stance of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has confirmed plans for a potential meeting with Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
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Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Talks end with no agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful peace agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%