Market
Outcome of Russia-Ukraine negotiations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian or Ukrainian governments or credible international news sources
Story
Trump Calls for Ukraine Ceasefire, Warns of Likely Sanctions if Putin Avoids Talks
Jan 21, 2025, 10:56 PM
President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would likely impose additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Calling for a ceasefire, Trump emphasized the need for dialogue to resolve the conflict. When asked whether he would consider further sanctions if Putin refuses to come to the negotiating table, Trump responded, "Sounds likely." He indicated that U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be reviewed following talks and insisted that European nations should match U.S. contributions. Trump also expressed his willingness to meet with Putin at any time considered appropriate by the Russian president.
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Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Successful peace agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%