Market
What will be the outcome of Ukraine-Russia negotiations in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian and Russian governments or major international news outlets
Story
Macron Urges Ukraine for 'Realistic' Territorial Talks in Fourth Year of Conflict
Jan 6, 2025, 01:00 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Ukraine to engage in 'realistic' discussions on territorial issues as the conflict with Russia enters its fourth year. Speaking at the Elysee Palace to French ambassadors, Macron emphasized that only Ukrainians can conduct these negotiations. He warned that there will be no 'quick and easy solution' to the conflict, rejecting the notion of a swift settlement despite recent comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Macron stressed the importance of U.S. assistance in pressuring Russia to return to negotiations and highlighted Europe's responsibility to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. He also cautioned that Western credibility would be undermined by any compromise due to 'fatigue' from the prolonged conflict.
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Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine remains neutral, no NATO membership • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%