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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry
Story
Jake Sullivan: White House Rejects Idea of Returning Nuclear Weapons to Ukraine
Dec 1, 2024, 02:43 PM
The White House has explicitly stated that the idea of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine is not under consideration. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, emphasized that the U.S. is focused on providing conventional weapons to Kyiv amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. This statement was made in response to queries about the possibility of nuclear armament for Ukraine, clarifying the U.S. stance on the matter.
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Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Talks end with no agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%