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What will be the control status of key territories in northern Syria by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Türkiye gains control • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and local sources
Story
White House Recognizes Türkiye's Role in Syria, Ceasefire with SDF Extended to Week's End
Dec 17, 2024, 06:30 PM
The White House has acknowledged Türkiye's significant role in the future of Syria, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stating that Türkiye is a key actor in any outcome related to the country. The U.S. has been engaging with Türkiye at various levels, recognizing their legitimate concerns about the terrorist threat along their border with Syria. Additionally, the U.S. State Department announced that a ceasefire between Türkiye and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria has been extended until the end of the week. This extension aims to maintain peace in the region, particularly in the Manbij area, where efforts have been made to reach a ceasefire.
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Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
PKK/YPG gains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Control remains contested • 25%
YPG retains control • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Rebels gain significant control • 25%
Government regains control • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
Controlled by YPG • 25%
Controlled by other factions • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkey • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other factions • 25%
YPG • 25%
Other Kurdish groups • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Rebel forces • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Control remains unchanged • 25%
Increased control by Turkey • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Increased control by YPG • 25%
Kurdish militants • 25%
Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Other local factions • 25%
Syrian government forces • 25%