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What will be the outcome of Israel's military operations in Gaza by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or reports from major international news outlets
Story
Israel's Defense Minister Katz: Full Security Control Over Gaza Post-Hamas Defeat, Similar to West Bank
Dec 17, 2024, 07:44 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that following the military defeat of Hamas, Israel will establish full security control over Gaza, similar to its current operations in the West Bank. Katz emphasized that Israel will have complete freedom of action in the region, rejecting any return to the pre-October 7 status quo. His remarks come amid ongoing military operations and reflect Israel's intent to maintain a permanent presence in Gaza, ensuring that terrorists cannot threaten Israeli civilians from the area again. Katz's position aligns with previous statements made to U.S. officials, indicating a strategic shift in Israel's approach to Gaza post-conflict.
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Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
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Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
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Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
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Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
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Continuation of current conflict • 25%
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Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
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New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%