Market
What will be the outcome of Israel's military actions in the Middle East by December 31, 2025?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Donald Trump•Israel•Netanyahu•Iran•Hezbollah•Hamas•Gaza•Syria•Middle East•Lebanon•Naim Qassem
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Reports from Israeli government and international news agencies
Story
Netanyahu and Trump Discuss Hostage Deal, Victory Over Iran Amid Hezbollah Supply Route Loss
Dec 15, 2024, 04:46 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a 'very friendly, very warm, and very important' phone conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday, discussing the need for Israel to achieve a 'complete victory' in its ongoing conflicts. Netanyahu emphasized Israel's determination to continue acting against Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, to prevent them from rearming and to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. He stated that Israel has no interest in conflict with Syria, but its actions there were aimed at thwarting potential threats and preventing terrorist elements from gaining control near its borders. Netanyahu also mentioned that Israel has significantly altered the dynamics in the Middle East, affecting Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem acknowledged the loss of their supply route through Syria due to Israeli actions.
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Similar markets
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no incidents • 25%
Prolonged deployment due to ongoing threats • 25%
Deployment leads to peace negotiations • 25%
Escalation into wider conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Houthi Retaliation • 25%
Significant Reduction in Houthi Attacks • 25%
Stalemate with No Significant Change • 25%
Houthi resistance strengthens • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Decisive Israeli victory • 25%
No significant damage to Houthi infrastructure • 25%
Limited Houthi infrastructure damaged • 25%
Significant Houthi infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increase in Houthi attacks • 25%
No change in Houthi activity • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi attacks • 25%
Houthis significantly weakened • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Houthis retaliate successfully • 25%
Conflict stalemates • 25%