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What will be the outcome of the Israeli Gaza deal by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news sources
Story
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich Calls Emerging Gaza Deal a 'Catastrophe' for National Security, Rejects Release of Terrorists
Jan 13, 2025, 09:10 AM
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has expressed strong opposition to an emerging deal regarding Gaza, labeling it a 'catastrophe' for Israel's national security. He stated that his party will not support a deal that involves the release of terrorists and a cessation of hostilities, emphasizing the need for Israel to maintain a robust military presence in Gaza until Hamas surrenders. Smotrich's comments come amid reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu has struggled to secure his support for the proposed exchange deal, which allegedly includes the return of more bodies than living hostages. Smotrich reiterated that any agreement perceived as a surrender will be rejected, calling for a decisive military approach to ensure Israel's security interests are upheld.
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Approved but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%