Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Trump Doubts Gaza Ceasefire, Cites 33 Hostage Release by Hamas
Jan 21, 2025, 01:25 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a lack of confidence in the ceasefire agreement in Gaza during a statement from the Oval Office on Monday evening. Trump, who made these remarks while signing executive orders on the first day of his second term, described the conflict as 'not our war' but 'their war.' He also characterized Gaza as a 'phenomenal location' with potential for rebuilding due to its seaside position and favorable weather conditions. The ceasefire, which began on Sunday, is part of a multi-phase plan that includes the release of 33 hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza. The agreement, initially drafted under the Biden administration, received direct support from Trump and his advisors during the negotiation process.
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Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Mutual violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%