Market
Outcome of Israeli military campaign in Gaza by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Reports from Israeli government, IDF announcements, and major international news agencies
Story
Israeli Defense Minister Katz Confirms IDF Will Maintain Security Control Over Gaza, Buffer Zones, and Aim to Defeat Hamas
Dec 25, 2024, 02:24 PM
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced during a visit to the Philadelphi Corridor that security control over Gaza will remain in the hands of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Katz emphasized that there will be no Hamas in governmental or military positions within Gaza. He outlined plans to establish buffer zones and control points to ensure Israel's security. The minister reaffirmed the objectives of the ongoing military campaign, which include the release of hostages and the complete defeat of Hamas. This announcement comes amidst heightened tensions in the region and ongoing discussions regarding a potential cease-fire.
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Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in tunnel activities • 25%
Increased international diplomatic tensions • 25%
Major humanitarian impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
