Market
Outcome of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and official statements from involved parties
Story
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Over 50, Including Children, in Gaza After Ceasefire Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 07:13 AM
Israeli forces intensified airstrikes on Gaza hours after announcing a ceasefire deal with Hamas, according to residents and authorities in the Palestinian enclave. Medical sources reported that over 50 Palestinians, including children, were killed in the attacks that targeted Gaza City and other areas across the territory. The ceasefire agreement, which was expected to commence on Sunday, has been overshadowed by the renewed violence.
View original story
Similar markets
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Condemnation by US • 25%
No formal condemnation • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Condemnation by EU • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
