Market
Outcome of IDF operation against Hamas in Gaza by April 30, 2025?
2
Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Hamas•Musa Bin Nusair•Daraj Tuffah•Gaza•Israeli military•Aman•Shin Bet•Southern Command•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Official statements from IDF and Hamas, and analysis from international observers
Story
IDF Airstrike Targets Hamas Command Center in Gaza's Former Musa Bin Nusair School
Dec 22, 2024, 06:49 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike overnight targeting Hamas operatives at a command and control center located in a former school, the Musa Bin Nusair school, in the Daraj Tuffah area of Gaza. The operation was carried out based on intelligence from the Israeli military's Aman, the Shin Bet security service, and the Southern Command. The IDF reported that the center was utilized by Hamas to plan and execute attacks against Israeli forces. Efforts were made during the strike to minimize civilian harm.
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Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Major humanitarian impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant reduction in tunnel activities • 25%
Increased international diplomatic tensions • 25%