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What will be the outcome of Israel's military strategy against Hamas by January 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news outlets
Story
Israel Defense Minister Orders IDF to Prepare Plan for Complete Defeat of Hamas by January 20, 2025
Jan 10, 2025, 09:02 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a plan for the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza. This directive comes with a deadline tied to the potential realization of a hostage deal. Katz stated that if a deal is not reached before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, Hamas must face total defeat. He emphasized the need to avoid a prolonged and costly war of attrition, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
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Hamas strengthened • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%