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What will be the outcome of Israel's military operations in Lebanon by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Reports from Israeli government or credible news agencies
Story
U.S. General Jeffers Reports Israel Plans to Extend Troop Presence in Lebanon to 90 Days, with April Extension Possibility
Jan 4, 2025, 09:05 AM
U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, head of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire implementation committee, has reportedly informed Lebanese officials of Israel's intention to extend its troop presence in Lebanon from the current 60 days to 90 days. This information was conveyed through Lebanese media sources, including the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar. The extension may be subject to further extensions until April, depending on Israel's ability to achieve its operational goals in the region, particularly concerning the disarmament of Hezbollah facilities. The discussions come amid ongoing tensions and military operations in southern Lebanon.
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Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Limited engagement only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful large-scale attack • 25%
No military action • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal with Conditions • 25%
No Withdrawal • 25%