Market
What will be the nature of negotiations between Russia and the U.S. over Ukraine by end of 2025?
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Vladimir Putin•Donald Trump•Ukraine•Russian•Kremlin•Konstantin Malofeyev•Malofeyev•Financial Times•Putin•Trump•Keith Kellogg•Kellogg•Moscow•Kellogg Plan•Russia•Kyiv•NATO•Yalta
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. or Russian governments, or international news agencies
Story
Putin to Reject Trump's 'Kellogg Plan' Peace Offer, Seeks 'Yalta 2.0', Says Kremlin Tycoon
Dec 2, 2024, 01:49 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to reject U.S. President Donald Trump's initial peace proposal for Ukraine, according to Russian tycoon and Kremlin confidant Konstantin Malofeyev. Malofeyev told the Financial Times that Putin would dismiss the plan proposed by Trump's special envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who was appointed in November 2024. "Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don't like any of it. That'd be the whole negotiation," Malofeyev said. The "Kellogg Plan," drafted in April 2024, aims to end Russia's isolation by establishing diplomatic relations with Moscow and ceasing the "demonization" of Putin. It also seeks to pressure both Moscow and Kyiv to agree on a ceasefire and initiate peace talks. However, Malofeyev indicated that Russia would engage in negotiations only if they address broader issues such as global security, NATO expansion, and multiple conflicts. Russia's demands include Ukraine ceding four regions and abandoning its ambitions to join NATO. Malofeyev added that Putin desires a "Yalta 2.0," referencing the 1945 conference that shaped the post-World War II order.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Other • 25%