Market
What will be the main political outcome in South Korea following the resolution by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resignation and snap election • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
Official announcements and verified news reports
Story
South Korean Parliament Urges Arrest of President Yoon and 7 Officials, Discusses Snap Election
Dec 10, 2024, 08:11 AM
South Korea's National Assembly has passed a resolution urging the immediate arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol and seven other officials following a botched martial law declaration on December 3. The resolution, passed on December 10, has led to discussions within the ruling party about potential scenarios to minimize political fallout, including the possibility of Yoon's resignation by the end of April next year, followed by a snap election two months later.
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Similar markets
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
Acting President Stays • 25%