Market
What will be the outcome of the South Korean presidential succession process by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New President Elected • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcement from the South Korean government or relevant authority
Story
South Korea's President Yoon Arrested on Insurrection Charges, First Sitting Leader Detained
Jan 16, 2025, 01:15 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been arrested on insurrection charges related to his declaration of martial law last month, marking the first time a sitting president has been detained in the country's history. Yoon was taken into custody after hundreds of law enforcement officers entered his residential compound in Seoul. He is being held at the Seoul Detention Center, where he spent his first night in a 10-square-meter cell. During a 10-hour interrogation by the anti-corruption agency, Yoon refused to answer questions, invoking his right to remain silent, and has declined further questioning citing health reasons. His lawyers have filed a habeas corpus petition challenging the legality of his detention. The Constitutional Court is proceeding with his impeachment trial without his presence, after denying his lawyers' request for a delay due to his arrest. If convicted of insurrection, Yoon could face life imprisonment or the death penalty.
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Similar markets
Other Outcome • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
Acting President Stays • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections called • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
Resignation and snap election • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Other changes • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Government change • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%