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What will be the status of the South Korean political crisis by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements and reports from South Korean government or major news outlets
Story
South Korean Parliament Urges Arrest of President Yoon Over Treason and Martial Law Attempt
Dec 10, 2024, 06:38 AM
South Korea's parliament has passed a resolution urging the immediate arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol, following allegations of treason and a failed attempt to declare martial law. The National Office of Investigation has banned five key police and military officials, including the police chief, from leaving the country as part of the ongoing investigation. Additionally, a bill was passed to appoint a special counsel to probe President Yoon's actions, signaling a significant political crisis in the country. President Yoon and seven others have been added to the arrest list.
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Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Condemnations Issued • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Other Actions • 25%
Condemnation of arrest • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Calls for restraint • 25%
Support for legal process • 25%