Market
What will be the leadership outcome in South Korea post-impeachment by March 31, 2025?
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South Korean•Yoon Suk Yeol•Corruption Investigation Office•CIO•Yoon•Seoul Central District Court•Seoul Western District Court
Resolution / Starting Odds
Acting President Stays • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or election results
Story
South Korea's Yoon Refuses Questioning Amid Insurrection Charges, Faces 20-Day Detention Extension
Jan 16, 2025, 09:51 PM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, detained on charges of leading an insurrection, has refused to attend questioning by the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) for the third consecutive day. Yoon was arrested following his brief declaration of martial law last month, which led to his impeachment. The Seoul Central District Court dismissed Yoon's petition challenging the legality of his detention, affirming the CIO's authority to investigate. The CIO is preparing to request an arrest warrant from the Seoul Western District Court, which could extend Yoon's detention by up to 20 days. The deadline for this request is set for 9:05 p.m. local time on the day of the report.
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Interim government established • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other changes • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
Other • 25%
Candidate from opposition party • 25%
New candidate from Yoon's party • 25%
Choi Sang-mok • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%