Market
Outcome of South Korean political crisis by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official government announcements, election results, or major news outlets
Story
South Korean President Declares Emergency Martial Law, Accuses Opposition of Anti-State Activities
Dec 3, 2024, 03:05 PM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has declared an 'emergency martial law' on Tuesday, accusing the country's opposition of controlling the parliament, sympathizing with North Korea, and engaging in anti-state activities that have paralyzed the government. In a televised address, Yoon accused the opposition of undermining the government and pledged to protect the country's constitutional order. The move comes amid deepening political rifts, accusations of the opposition's pro-North Korea sympathies, and clashes with the opposition-controlled parliament over impeachment motions.
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Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Other • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%