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Outcome of South Korean political unrest by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Major news outlets and official government reports
Story
South Korea Arrests Ex-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on Rebellion Charges
Dec 7, 2024, 10:05 PM
Former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun has been arrested on rebellion charges related to his involvement in a recent declaration of emergency martial law. This arrest comes after a period of political turmoil, which led to Kim's resignation from his position. South Korean prosecutors are questioning him over his role in the botched martial law declaration, which has sparked significant controversy and unrest within the country's political landscape.
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Continued unrest • 25%
Other • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Government change • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
New President elected • 25%
New interim government • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon remains in office • 25%
New election • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%