Market
Outcome of South Korean political crisis by June 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Official government announcements or reports from credible news agencies
Story
South Korean Parliament Votes 190-0 to Block President's Martial Law Amid Military Tension
Dec 3, 2024, 04:12 PM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law, accusing the opposition of anti-state activities and controlling parliament. The declaration led to significant political upheaval, with military forces entering the parliament building to enforce the decree. In response, the South Korean National Assembly convened and voted unanimously, 190-0, to block President Yoon's martial law declaration, with the Speaker declaring it invalid. The vote occurred amidst reports of military helicopters hovering over parliament and soldiers attempting to arrest lawmakers. The situation remains tense as the military's allegiance is uncertain, with 110 MPs who support the President boycotting the vote.
View original story
Similar markets
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Government change • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
Other • 25%
New interim government • 25%
New election • 25%
Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%