Market
Entity most likely accused by SDF of ceasefire violations by end of 2025?
3
Turkish National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Yayla Kızılkaya•Nesrin Amed•Qamishli•Syria•Kızılkaya•Jazira•Syrian Democratic Forces•SDF•Turkey
Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey • 25%
Syrian Government • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Other • 25%
Statements from the Syrian Democratic Forces or credible international news sources
Story
Turkey's MIT Neutralizes PKK Commander Nesrin Amed, Also Known as Yayla Kızılkaya, in Qamishli, Syria
Dec 19, 2024, 07:06 AM
The Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has neutralized Yayla Kızılkaya, also known by the codename Nesrin Amed, in a targeted operation in Qamishli, Syria. Kızılkaya was identified as a key figure within the PKK/PAJK, serving as the commander for the Jazira region and responsible for the management of the group's female cadres. The operation has drawn attention amid ongoing tensions in northern Syria, with accusations from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against Turkey and its affiliated groups for violating ceasefire agreements in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Both equally • 25%
Israel • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
No clear blame assigned • 25%
Kurdish Forces • 25%
Turkish Government • 25%
Turkish-backed Militias • 25%
Lebanon • 25%
France • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Israel • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Russian military • 25%
Kurdish forces • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Assad regime forces • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
European Union • 25%
No foreign involvement identified • 25%
European involvement identified • 25%
Israeli involvement identified • 25%
US involvement identified • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Iran • 25%
Israel • 25%
Houthis • 25%
Both Qatar and United States • 25%
United States • 25%
Other entities • 25%
Qatar • 25%
