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How will the U.S. engage with HTS diplomatically in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Direct negotiations • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Sanctioned actions • 25%
Reports from U.S. State Department or international diplomatic communications
Story
Senior US Official: Washington Post Reports Consideration to Remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from Terror List for Syrian Stability
Dec 9, 2024, 02:46 AM
A senior U.S. official has indicated that the Biden administration is considering the possibility of removing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of terrorist organizations. This statement, reported by The Washington Post, reflects an acknowledgment of the complexities involved in counter-terrorism efforts in Syria. The official noted that HTS's role in maintaining governmental institutions, including the military, may facilitate a transition towards stability in the region. The evaluation of HTS's independence from Turkey is also part of the ongoing assessment regarding its designation as a terrorist group. The discussions highlight the U.S. administration's efforts to navigate the challenging landscape of Syrian politics and security.
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
HTS recognized by multiple countries • 25%
HTS disbanded • 25%
HTS remains unchanged • 25%
HTS faces increased sanctions • 25%
Full restoration with multiple countries • 25%
Partial restoration with some countries • 25%
No restoration achieved • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Supportive response • 25%
Critical response • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%