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Will the US announce a new diplomatic initiative with Syria and HTS by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official US government announcements or press releases
Story
US Diplomat to Hold First Formal Talks with HTS Leader in Damascus
Dec 19, 2024, 07:36 PM
The United States is set to reengage diplomatically with Syria as Barbara Leaf, the State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, plans to lead a delegation to Damascus in the coming days. This visit could mark the first formal U.S. contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Leaf is expected to meet with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has a $10 million U.S. bounty on him. Discussions are anticipated to focus on Syria's political transition, addressing security concerns, and possibly reevaluating HTS's designation as a terrorist organization. European countries, such as Germany, have recently initiated dialogue with HTS representatives following a recent offensive by the group, signaling a shift in international relations with HTS.
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%