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Market
What major geopolitical shift will involve HTS and U.S. relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS recognized by multiple countries • 25%
HTS disbanded • 25%
HTS remains unchanged • 25%
HTS faces increased sanctions • 25%
International news agencies and government announcements
Story
US Rescinds $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani After Meeting in Damascus
Dec 21, 2024, 09:15 AM
The United States has officially rescinded its $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This decision was announced by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf following a diplomatic meeting in Damascus. The U.S. government informed al-Julani that it would no longer pursue the reward, which was initially offered for his capture due to terrorism charges. This move reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards the new leadership in Syria, particularly after the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The removal of the bounty indicates a potential realignment of U.S. relations with HTS amid ongoing changes in the Syrian political landscape.
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Sanctioned actions • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
Direct negotiations • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
No change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Alliance formation • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%