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What will be the outcome of U.S. policy shift towards HTS by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Analysis of U.S. foreign policy announcements and diplomatic actions
Story
US Rescinds $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani After Meeting in Damascus
Dec 21, 2024, 09:15 AM
The United States has officially rescinded its $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This decision was announced by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf following a diplomatic meeting in Damascus. The U.S. government informed al-Julani that it would no longer pursue the reward, which was initially offered for his capture due to terrorism charges. This move reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards the new leadership in Syria, particularly after the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The removal of the bounty indicates a potential realignment of U.S. relations with HTS amid ongoing changes in the Syrian political landscape.
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Continued engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Conditional engagement • 25%
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Removed from terrorist list • 25%
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Reduced engagement • 25%
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EU supports US decision • 25%
Russia condemns US decision • 25%
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Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
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Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Supportive response • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Recognized as legitimate government • 25%
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