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What will be the outcome of UK's diplomatic engagement with HTS by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Official UK government statements or major news outlets
Story
UK's David Lammy Confirms Diplomatic Contact with HTS Following Bashar al-Assad's Ouster
Dec 15, 2024, 05:12 PM
The United Kingdom has established diplomatic contact with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that recently ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed this development, stating that the British government has engaged with the new Syrian government led by HTS. This contact marks a significant shift in the UK's diplomatic approach towards Syria following the recent political changes in the region.
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Improved relations with HTS • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Weakened HTS position • 25%
Other impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthened HTS position • 25%
HTS restructured • 25%
HTS dissolved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No change to HTS • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Direct negotiations • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
Sanctioned actions • 25%
HTS loses territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
HTS maintains current status • 25%
Partial restoration with some countries • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No restoration achieved • 25%
Full restoration with multiple countries • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
