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What will be the outcome of US and UK diplomatic efforts with HTS by end of 2025?
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Antony Blinken•Jordan•United States•Syrian•HTS•Blinken•US•American•Austin Tice•UK•David Lammy•Britain•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from US and UK governments or credible news reports
Story
US and UK Confirm Direct Contact with Syrian Rebel HTS, a Designated Terrorist Group
Dec 15, 2024, 02:19 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Jordan, has confirmed that the United States has been in direct contact with the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Blinken is the first US official to publicly acknowledge such contact with HTS, which is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US. He stated that the communications aim to discuss the case of missing American journalist Austin Tice and to stress US principles for recognizing a future Syrian government. Blinken declined to specify who within the US government is the primary contact with HTS. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that Britain has also had diplomatic contact with HTS, signaling international efforts to engage with Syria's new leadership following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's government.
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Similar markets
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Full restoration with multiple countries • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No restoration achieved • 25%
Partial restoration with some countries • 25%
HTS maintains current status • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
HTS loses territory • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
Sanctioned actions • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Direct negotiations • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%