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Will the U.S. establish formal diplomatic relations with HTS by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the U.S. State Department or a press release
Story
US Rescinds $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani After Meeting in Damascus
Dec 21, 2024, 09:15 AM
The United States has officially rescinded its $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This decision was announced by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf following a diplomatic meeting in Damascus. The U.S. government informed al-Julani that it would no longer pursue the reward, which was initially offered for his capture due to terrorism charges. This move reflects a shift in U.S. policy towards the new leadership in Syria, particularly after the recent ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The removal of the bounty indicates a potential realignment of U.S. relations with HTS amid ongoing changes in the Syrian political landscape.
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
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Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Direct negotiations • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Sanctioned actions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United Kingdom • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%