Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic engagement with HTS by end of 2025?
2
Damascus•Syria•State Department•Barbara Leaf•Roger Carstens•Daniel Rubinstein•Americans•Austin Tice•HTS•Washington
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Official U.S. government or HTS announcements
Story
U.S. Diplomats Meet HTS Leader Jolani in Damascus to Discuss Syria's Future
Dec 20, 2024, 07:40 AM
Senior U.S. diplomats have arrived in Damascus for the first time since 2012 to meet with Syria's new Islamist-led authorities, following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The State Department confirmed that officials including Barbara Leaf, Roger Carstens, and Daniel Rubinstein are in talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al-Qaeda affiliate led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who has a $10 million bounty on his head. The discussions aim to press for a smooth political transition, explore the potential removal of HTS from the U.S. terrorist list, address the fate of missing Americans in Syria—including journalist Austin Tice—and understand how HTS plans to govern the country. This marks the first official engagement between Washington and Syria's new de facto rulers since the closure of the U.S. embassy in Damascus in 2012.
View original story
Similar markets
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Direct negotiations • 25%
Indirect engagement • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Sanctioned actions • 25%
Strengthened HTS position • 25%
Weakened HTS position • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Full restoration with multiple countries • 25%
Partial restoration with some countries • 25%
No restoration achieved • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
HTS recognized by multiple countries • 25%
HTS disbanded • 25%
HTS remains unchanged • 25%
HTS faces increased sanctions • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%