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What will be the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations by December 31, 2025?
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Donald Trump•IEEPA•Trump•Scott Bessent•Secretary•Kevin Hassett•National Economic Council•Stephen Miran•Council of Economic Advisers•Asia•Chinese
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official trade agreements or announcements from the U.S. government
Story
Trump's Team Studies 2%-5% Monthly Tariff Hikes Under IEEPA, Sparks Asia Stock Rally
Jan 14, 2025, 02:49 AM
Members of Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing a strategy to gradually increase tariffs month by month, aiming to enhance negotiating leverage with trading partners while mitigating the risk of a sudden spike in inflation. The proposed plan involves raising tariffs by 2% to 5% each month, utilizing executive powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This approach is still in its early stages and has not yet been presented to Trump. Key figures involved in these discussions include Scott Bessent, nominated for Treasury Secretary, Kevin Hassett, set to be the director of the National Economic Council, and Stephen Miran, nominated to lead the Council of Economic Advisers. The news of this potential policy shift led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies and a rally in global stock markets, particularly in Asia, with Chinese stocks leading the gains.
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Trade agreement reached • 25%
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Improved relations • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
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Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
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New trade agreement • 25%
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Minor adjustments • 25%
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Major restructuring • 25%
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New trade deal with China • 25%
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New trade deal with EU • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
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