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Outcome of U.S.-EU trade ultimatum by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. and EU governments or credible news sources
Story
President-elect Trump Warns EU to Reduce Trade Deficit by Buying U.S. Oil and Gas or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 11:59 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must reduce its trade deficit with the United States by making large-scale purchases of American oil and gas or face tariffs. In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump stated, "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" The ultimatum suggests a potential trade confrontation if the EU does not comply with his demands.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
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Case settled mutually • 25%
Case withdrawn • 25%
U.S. wins case • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
EU agrees to increase purchases • 25%
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Trade war • 25%
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Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
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Canada retaliates • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
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Dispute unresolved • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
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New trade deal with China • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%