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What will be the outcome of US-EU trade relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Official announcements and trade agreements between the US and EU
Story
Trump Warns EU: Buy US Oil and Gas to Reduce Trade Deficit or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 10:44 AM
US President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must reduce its trade deficit with the United States by significantly increasing purchases of American oil and gas or face tariffs. In messages posted on Truth Social on December 20, Trump stated that he told the EU they must "make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is tariffs all the way." An EU spokesperson responded that the EU is committed to phasing out Russian energy imports and diversifying supplies, and is ready to discuss strengthening economic ties with President-elect Trump, including in the energy sector. The US is the world's top LNG exporter and the largest oil producer, and US oil exports to Europe are already at record levels.
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Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Trade war • 25%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
EU increases purchases of US energy • 25%
Tariffs imposed on EU goods • 25%
Negotiated settlement without tariffs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs remain • 25%
Tariffs reduced without new agreement • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other developments • 25%