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What governance style will HTS adopt in Syria by end of 2025?
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Damascus•Syria•State Department•Barbara Leaf•Roger Carstens•Daniel Rubinstein•Americans•Austin Tice•HTS•Washington
Resolution / Starting Odds
Democratic governance • 25%
Islamist governance • 25%
Hybrid governance • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Reports from international observers, NGOs, or major news outlets
Story
U.S. Diplomats Meet HTS Leader Jolani in Damascus to Discuss Syria's Future
Dec 20, 2024, 07:40 AM
Senior U.S. diplomats have arrived in Damascus for the first time since 2012 to meet with Syria's new Islamist-led authorities, following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The State Department confirmed that officials including Barbara Leaf, Roger Carstens, and Daniel Rubinstein are in talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al-Qaeda affiliate led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who has a $10 million bounty on his head. The discussions aim to press for a smooth political transition, explore the potential removal of HTS from the U.S. terrorist list, address the fate of missing Americans in Syria—including journalist Austin Tice—and understand how HTS plans to govern the country. This marks the first official engagement between Washington and Syria's new de facto rulers since the closure of the U.S. embassy in Damascus in 2012.
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National Army formation • 25%
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HTS part of interim government • 25%
HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
Other role • 25%
Democratic elections • 25%
Authoritarian rule • 25%
Transitional government • 25%
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Leadership change • 25%
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Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
Recognized as government • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Full support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
UN recognition • 25%
EU recognition • 25%
Recognition by major powers (e.g., US, UK) • 25%
No recognition • 25%
