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What impact will US and UK contact with HTS have on Syrian politics by end of 2025?
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Antony Blinken•Jordan•United States•Syrian•HTS•Blinken•US•American•Austin Tice•UK•David Lammy•Britain•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened HTS position • 25%
Weakened HTS position • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Analysis from credible political analysts and news agencies
Story
US and UK Confirm Direct Contact with Syrian Rebel HTS, a Designated Terrorist Group
Dec 15, 2024, 02:19 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Jordan, has confirmed that the United States has been in direct contact with the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Blinken is the first US official to publicly acknowledge such contact with HTS, which is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US. He stated that the communications aim to discuss the case of missing American journalist Austin Tice and to stress US principles for recognizing a future Syrian government. Blinken declined to specify who within the US government is the primary contact with HTS. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that Britain has also had diplomatic contact with HTS, signaling international efforts to engage with Syria's new leadership following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's government.
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Similar markets
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
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Disbanded • 25%
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Sanctions imposed • 25%
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Reduced engagement • 25%
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Continued isolation • 25%
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Sanctions imposed by multiple countries • 25%
Recognized by multiple Western countries • 25%
Recognized by regional countries only • 25%
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