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What will be the outcome of the National Dialogue Conference regarding HTS by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS dissolved • 25%
HTS restructured • 25%
No change to HTS • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Syrian government or coverage by major news outlets
Story
Syria's De Facto Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa Says Elections Could Take Four Years, Constitution Drafting Three Years, HTS Dissolution Announced
Dec 29, 2024, 05:10 PM
Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's de facto leader following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, stated in an interview that organizing elections could take up to four years. He emphasized that any legitimate electoral process would require a comprehensive population census. Additionally, al-Sharaa noted that drafting a new constitution may take approximately three years. He also announced plans to dissolve the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) at an upcoming National Dialogue Conference. Al-Sharaa's comments mark the first detailed timeline for Syria's political transition since the recent regime change.
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No Decision Made • 25%
HTS Dissolved • 25%
HTS Remains Active • 25%
HTS Rebrands • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Drafting process initiated • 25%
Drafting process completed • 25%
No progress made • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
HTS dissolved, Kurdish forces integrated • 25%
HTS not dissolved, Kurdish forces not integrated • 25%
HTS not dissolved, Kurdish forces integrated • 25%
HTS dissolved, Kurdish forces not integrated • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Full support • 25%
SDF refuses to evacuate • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
SDF evacuates with safe passage • 25%
