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What will be the outcome of HTS's political influence in Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and international observers
Story
UK Considers Lifting 2017 Terrorist Designation of Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) After Assad Ouster
Dec 9, 2024, 07:39 AM
The UK government is contemplating the removal of Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from its list of proscribed terrorist organizations. HTS, which has been banned since 2017 due to its association with al-Qaeda, has played a significant role in the Syrian conflict, particularly in the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. Senior Cabinet minister Pat McFadden indicated that the government would need to reassess HTS's classification, citing a 'splintering' between HTS and al-Qaeda. No formal decision has been made yet regarding the lifting of the ban.
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Full support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
HTS retains control • 25%
Government forces regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other rebel groups take control • 25%
HTS part of interim government • 25%
HTS excluded from government • 25%
HTS forms own government • 25%
Other role • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Recognized as government • 25%
Recognized as local authority • 25%
Recognized as non-state actor • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Syrian Army regains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
