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What will be the outcome of Ukrainian aid to HTS by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
HTS maintains current status • 25%
HTS loses territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and governmental statements
Story
Ukraine Aids HTS Rebels in Syria with FPV Drones in Early November
Dec 11, 2024, 09:14 AM
Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly provided support to the Syrian opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, Syria, by sending approximately 20 experienced drone operators and around 150 first-person view (FPV) drones in early November, according to The Washington Post, citing unnamed sources. The move is seen as part of Kyiv's strategy to undermine Russian influence in Syria and was aimed at supporting the rebels' offensive against the Syrian army. While the support was not instrumental in overthrowing the Assad government, it has been noted as an attempt to weaken Russia on other fronts.
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HTS gains significant ground • 25%
HTS maintains current position • 25%
HTS loses ground • 25%
Other • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
No impact • 25%
Significant impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased sanctions or military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with HTS • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Stability achieved • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial stability • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Aid partially completed • 25%
Aid redirected to other priorities • 25%
Aid halted due to political changes • 25%
Aid completed successfully • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Ukraine ceases support • 25%
Iran withdraws demand • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Syrian Army regains control • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%