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Status of Syrian territories under Turkish influence by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Other status • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major international news outlets
Story
Erdogan Declares New Political Reality in Syria, Amidst Assad's Rejection
Dec 7, 2024, 03:00 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared a new political and diplomatic reality in Syria, emphasizing that the country belongs to its diverse population and that the Syrian people will determine their own future. He stated that Turkey has no territorial ambitions in Syria and will not allow any actions that could jeopardize its national security or interests. Erdogan's comments come amidst ongoing tensions and diplomatic efforts concerning the Syrian conflict, with recent reports suggesting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has rejected Erdogan's requests for a bilateral meeting.
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Stable control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
HTS • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other rebel groups • 25%
Coalition forces • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%