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Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025?
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Israel•Hamas•Israeli•Gaza City•Romi Gonen•Doron Steinbrecher•Emily Damari•ICRC•Red Cross•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Gaza Strip•Netzarim Corridor•Gaza•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Hamas representatives and international news agencies
Story
After 471 Days, Hamas Releases Three Israeli Hostages Under Ceasefire Deal
Jan 19, 2025, 03:40 PM
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect on Sunday morning, leading to the release of three Israeli female hostages who had been held captive for 471 days in Gaza City. The hostages—Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari—were handed over by Hamas to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and are reported to be in good health. The Red Cross then transferred them to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops inside the Gaza Strip, in the Netzarim Corridor area. Footage released by the IDF shows the moment the hostages crossed from Gaza into Israel, where their mothers were waiting to meet them. The release marks the first phase of a ceasefire deal, with the three women being the first of 33 Israeli hostages that Hamas is expected to free. Israel is expected to release about 90 Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement over the next several weeks.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%